In 1966 a youthful Carl Sagan co-authored the book Intelligent Life in the Universe with Russian astronomer I.S. Shklovskii. A virtual tome of evidence supporting the probability of extraterrestrial life, Intelligent Life in the Universe is an unquestioned masterpiece. The book is characterized by candid, forward thinking scientific discussion of a topic now too taboo for mainstream science. More importantly, it illustrates the extraordinary divergence between Sagan's early beliefs and his later, considerably more pessimistic--and some might argue, politically motivated--views on the subject of ET life.

Most noteworthy are the passages regarding the likelihood of past contact with extraterrestrial visitors to our planet, and the surprising frequency with which the authors suspect it has occurred. From page 461:

With the numbers we [Sagan and co-author I.S. Shklovskii] have discussed [in Intelligent Life in the Universe], it seems possible that the Earth has been visited by various Galactic civilizations many times (possibly [every 10,000 years], during geological time). It is not out of the question that artifacts of these visits still exist--although none have been found to date--or even that some kind of base is maintained within the solar system to provide continuity for successive expeditions. Because of weathering and the possibility of detection and interference by the inhabitants of the Earth, it might have appeared preferable not to erect such a base on the Earth's surface. [Emphasis added.]

The Moon seems one reasonable alternative site for a base. Forthcoming high-resolution photographic reconnaissance of the Moon from space vehicles--particularly, of the back side--might bear these possibilities in mind. [Shklovskii:] Agrest has independently made a similar conjecture, [Sagan:] as has the Anglo-Ceylonese science writer, Arthur C. Clarke. [Shklovskii:] The cosmic visitors would probably reason that by the time man had developed the technology to explore the far side of the Moon, he would also have attained a certain limited degree of advancement and might be called civilized. [Sagan:] Contact with such a base would, of course, provide the most direct check on the possibility of fairly frequent interstellar spaceflight.

One of the most common reasons given by skeptics in the debate over Cydonia is that the a priori likelihood of finding artifacts on the Moon or Mars is extremely low. Given that these esteemed astronomers predicted we might find artifacts on nearby planets, is it reasonable to reject the Cydonia and lunar data supporting the Artificiality Hypothesis? In my estimation, the answer is no. Given the priceless nature of knowledge we might glean from study of predicted artifacts in our solar system, there is no compelling reason not to pursue the available evidence suggesting artificiality on Mars and the Moon. The "Cydonia Investment" must be made.

 

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